Circles of Causality: A Simple Guide to Systems Thinking

Life rarely follows a straight line. Despite what our linear language might suggest, reality tends to move in circles—cycles and patterns that repeat and evolve. This circular nature of existence forms the foundation of systems thinking, a powerful framework for understanding complex problems.

The Fifth Discipline and Beyond

My journey into systems thinking began in the mid-1980s when I discovered Peter Senge’s book, The Fifth Discipline. Senge outlined five disciplines that create a learning organization: Shared Vision, Personal Mastery, Team Learning, Mental Models, and the fifth, Systems Thinking. As a leader, I’ve tried to incorporate these disciplines into every organization I’ve led.

If you search for “systems thinking” online today, you’ll find an overwhelming amount of information. But how can we distill this complex topic into something practical and accessible?

A Simple Framework: Circles of Causality

The Levels of Perspective framework (Kim) became my lens for simplifying systems thinking. In any organization, we can observe four key elements interacting daily:

  1. Mental models
  2. Systems and structures
  3. Patterns of behavior
  4. Events

These elements never arrange themselves in a straight line—they form what I call circles of causality. This perspective allows us to see situations, problems, and the world holistically rather than as isolated events or simple cause-effect relationships.

The Four Story Characters in Any System

When examining any issue through the lens of circles of causality, there are four “story characters” you’ll always find:

  1. Events
    These are observable actions or occurrences that we can physically see happening. Events are the most visible part of any system but often just the tip of the iceberg.
  2. Patterns of Behavior
    These are events or trends that occur over time. By recognizing patterns, we begin to see beyond isolated incidents to the underlying rhythms of a system.
  3. Systemic Structures
    These are the physical or human components we design to help us work efficiently and effectively. Structures can be organizational charts, policies, processes, or physical infrastructure.
  4. Mental Models
    These are the values, beliefs, and assumptions that drive human behavior. Often invisible but incredibly powerful, mental models form the foundation of any human system.

Creating Your Own Circle of Causality

To apply this thinking to an issue you want to address:

  1. Identify your vision: What will this issue look like when it’s resolved?
  2. List the mental models: What beliefs and values would drive the behaviors you want to see?
  3. Define the systems and structures: What frameworks would support living out these mental models?
  4. Describe the patterns of behavior: What repeated actions would you observe in an ideal system?
  5. Specify the events: What specific occurrences would be visible?

Once you’ve identified these elements, create your “issue story” as a circle of causality by connecting each element to show how one leads to (causes) the next. The key is demonstrating the causal relationship between each story character.

You’ll know your story is effective when all your mental models and systemic structures align, resulting in the patterns of behavior and events you desire to see.

Finding Leverage for Change

The power of circles of causality lies in their ability to reveal the whole system at once:

  • They make mental models visible
  • They illuminate structures
  • They highlight patterns of behavior
  • They put events in context
  • They reveal where the highest leverage for change exists

By identifying the areas of highest leverage, those places where small changes can produce significant results—you can more effectively impact the issues that matter most to you and your organization.

Learning as Transformation

At its heart, systems thinking reminds us that learning is the process of changing beliefs. Our mental models make systems resistant to change, which is why understanding them is so crucial for transformation. When we align our vision, mental models, and systems/structures, we create the conditions for the patterns and events we wish to see.

Life may indeed be a circle, as Harry Chapin’s lyrics suggest, but with systems thinking, we can better understand those circles and use them to create meaningful change.

Adapted from “A Simple Man’s Guide to Systems Thinking” by Bill Martin